Hello, I know we are all reeling from the election at one point or another and a lot of focus comes on the Republican win of the Senate and strengthening hold of the house we have to really tamp down a bit on our analysis.
Many republicans will tell you on the surface “Look at the supreme mandate the democrats will never win another election ever again!” I like to see that kind of optimism so have your parties and enjoy your victory it was well earned. I want to address the democrats that are feeling like they should just give over the presidency and every remaining seat over to the Republican party right now.
Let’s first address Turnout, even you don’t count the fact that Georgia and Texas pretty much turned you away at the poll unless you intended to vote republican but we also need to look at the terribly low turnout. In an election where we see low turnout republicans always win. This is pretty simple as Democratic voters are lazy and temperamental much like cats that really only do what they want to do when they want to do it. Republicans are like dogs loyally following their candidates no matter what. I think states could pass a law requiring you to get shot in the arm if you vote and you would still have ridiculously high republican turnout. Of course this is thrown on its head on 2016 as most democrats only vote in Presidential elections.
Many of the states won today were states that were pretty much sold to republicans from the beginning. The Midterms are and uphill battle for democrats not just for turnout but for but for the geography as well. There were a few upsets but in reality the main issues reflect the dissatisfaction with people in the system in general.
Lastly we really aren't looking at other measures when we look at the vote though I admit the senate and governor races are shiny. For instance the Minimum Wage bills that had come up to raise the minimum wage and the marijuana legislation that are both very much opposed by the Republican party passed despite their anger.
So Republicans, if you want to win in 2016 don’t think you can just skate around you’re going to have to work and work hard. As much of an uphill battle this was for democrats 2016 will be this exact way for republicans.
So now to what this all means. Many of the low information republicans believe that now all their legislation is going to be rammed through and they will be able to have their agendas passed with little to no difficulty. They are really wrong (though enjoy that if you really feel it is true). Many republican candidates seem to trumpet that this will be a new age of working together and bipartisanship to come.
You know I really would want to agree and maybe 10 years ago I would definitely agree that no one party should hold the legislative and the executive branch. This forces deals to be struck and compromise that is usually very good for America . The problem is that today there is no compromise. Many tout that Harry Reid had held up hundreds of bipartisan bills from the House and this is highly misleading. Lets fist just put aside the hundreds of bills that have been quashed by the House majority leader, I have looked at these “Bipartisan bills” and I can tell you that only a handful could be considered really Bipartisan. 90% of the bills are just partisan bills passed with no intention of it making it through to the presidents desk. This partisanship will continue into the next two years with the Republicans saying “no deals you do what we want or government grinds to a halt”. The party structure at this time is no longer the structure as it was indented but a winner take all type. We do have a dealmaker as a president but he will not pass many of the bills that Republicans can pass on to him as they will all be one sided “you will do everything I say now sit down and shut up” types of legislation.
Many of the bills won’t even make it to the president’s desk. Many republicans should be very familiar with their favorite word ‘filibuster’. This word which was once considered a beacon of hope and light in the republican world will soon be a curse on their lips as all their “no nonsense” legislation gets stopped in its tracks before the president can even get the cap off of his pen. So really democrats and hopefuls that electing republicans will end Washington gridlock, you are sorely out of luck as the gridlock will get worse the shut downs will be longer and the bickering will be harsher than ever. Of course if republicans have been mad about executive orders before they will really be mad now.
The big win for republicans is in appointments. The lame duck session will be the President’s last chance to put in judges or cabinet positions as there will be no appointments during this 2 year cycle. It took the nuclear option to get them past the filibuster before and now that republicans hold the senate they will not let any nominations through unless they are 100% tea party people that would like to see the president’s head on a spike (and I’m sure that the president is going to go to town nominating those types to his cabinet.). What we will see is a huge surge in nominations during the lame duck session and then nothing for the next two years. This is a big win for republicans but there is still something they need to consider and worry about and that is if republican judges retire or die as they will never get replaced and heaven forbid a republican on the supreme court (I know they aren’t supposed to have political affiliation but they are politically aligned so is the world) passes away and then you have gridlock or worse for republicans if they lose two of them and Kennedy survives you will have a democratic majority supreme court.
So in the end republican power may seem to have leapt up but it has more inched up. They still have the same control over interpreting the laws mostly as their backers want but in the end if you wanted change to come from this election you are really going to be disappointed this session.
